Trash Can
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.72
53.42 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.25 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.06%
424 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 424 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $161 247 gems | 15.4% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 1 in 25 | $139 214 gems | 17.8% | 18 | 17.0 | 1.06× |
| AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $107 165 gems | 27.5% | 27 | 33.9 | 0.80× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 15.0% | $62.49 96.14 gems | 30.0% | 73 | 63.6 | 1.15× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $20.68 31.82 gems | 6.6% | 43 | 42.4 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $4.01 6.17 gems | 1.3% | 37 | 42.4 | 0.87× |
| P250 | Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $2.75 4.23 gems | 0.9% | 55 | 42.4 | 1.30× |
| AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.89 1.37 gems | 0.3% | 45 | 42.4 | 1.06× |
| StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $0.38 0.59 gems | 0.2% | 70 | 63.6 | 1.10× |
| P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.0% | 47 | 63.6 | 0.74× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$34.7253.42 gems$62.4996.14 gems1.80x
StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$34.7253.42 gems$4.016.17 gems0.12x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$34.7253.42 gems$0.380.59 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHelqxz$34.7253.42 gems$4.016.17 gems0.12x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$34.7253.42 gems$0.380.59 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.72 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 31.0%Classified 4.0%classified 15.0%covert 10.0%milspec 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit —