Treasure Map
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.51
8.48 gems
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $4.96 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.47%
17.6K openings, odds method
Variance
44.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $359 552 gems | 72.3% | 185 | 178.3 | 1.04× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $98.41 151 gems | 19.9% | 161 | 178.3 | 0.90× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $18.55 28.54 gems | 3.7% | 187 | 178.3 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | Great Wave (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 100 | $6.88 10.59 gems | 1.4% | 166 | 178.3 | 0.93× |
| Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $3.34 5.14 gems | 0.7% | 189 | 178.3 | 1.06× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 95.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 2.0% | 16,945 | 16941.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.51 | 89.91% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%covert 2.0%exotic 1.0%restricted 1.0%Rare 95.0%best hit $359 (65.04x)