Trick or Treat
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.55
22.38 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $13.09 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.43%
2,382 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,402 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $108 166 gems | 41.2% | 146 | 120.1 | 1.22× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $34.47 53.03 gems | 26.3% | 236 | 240.2 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $15.00 23.07 gems | 11.5% | 219 | 240.2 | 0.91× |
| P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $10.04 15.44 gems | 7.7% | 251 | 240.2 | 1.04× |
| Tec-9 | Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $7.35 11.3 gems | 5.6% | 227 | 240.2 | 0.95× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $4.92 7.57 gems | 3.8% | 256 | 240.2 | 1.07× |
| Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue | 15.0% | $3.09 4.76 gems | 3.5% | 355 | 360.3 | 0.99× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 0.3% | 350 | 360.3 | 0.97× |
| Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.1% | 362 | 360.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialValentinobond$14.5522.38 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$14.5522.38 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classifiedValentinobond$14.5522.38 gems$34.4753.03 gems2.37x
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$14.5522.38 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classifiedhttps://kick.com/waxumfriendly$14.5522.38 gems$10.0415.44 gems0.69x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $14.55 | 89.97% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 25.0%industrial 35.0%mil spec 10.0%blue 15.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit —