Tryhard
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.40
82.16 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $48.06 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.04%
150 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,139 3,291 gems | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,563 2,404 gems | 6.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Factory New)gloves · #eb4b4b | 1 in 500 | $1,054 1,622 gems | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $649 999 gems | 6.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | Aphrodite (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 50 | $332 511 gems | 13.8% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 50 | $208 320 gems | 8.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $105 161 gems | 21.7% | 16 | 15.0 | 1.07× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b | 10.0% | $56.99 87.68 gems | 11.9% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $22.80 35.08 gems | 9.5% | 24 | 30.0 | 0.80× |
| P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 55.0% | $10.78 16.59 gems | 12.3% | 88 | 82.5 | 1.07× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.40 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.8%#eb4b4b 12.2%#d32ee6 2.0%Ancient 10.0%Legendary 55.0%best hit —