Tsunami
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$49.04
75.44 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $44.13 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.91%
1,694 openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,727 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $688 1,059 gems | 78.0% | 78 | 86.3 | 0.90× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $75.62 116 gems | 8.6% | 82 | 86.3 | 0.95× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $44.43 68.36 gems | 5.0% | 71 | 86.3 | 0.82× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $18.30 28.15 gems | 2.1% | 94 | 86.3 | 1.09× |
| AUG | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $12.07 18.57 gems | 1.4% | 87 | 86.3 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $6.38 9.81 gems | 3.6% | 421 | 431.7 | 0.98× |
| G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $1.48 2.27 gems | 0.8% | 439 | 431.7 | 1.02× |
| Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $0.98 1.51 gems | 0.6% | 455 | 431.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$49.0475.44 gems$6881,059 gems14.03x
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertDrifters Hot Man Hands$49.0475.44 gems$6881,059 gems14.03x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $49.04 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%classified 35.0%restricted 55.0%best hit $688 (14.03x)