Turf War
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.39
23.68 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $13.85 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.26%
3,182 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,230 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $150 230 gems | 75.6% | 257 | 226.1 | 1.14× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 18.0% | $15.80 24.31 gems | 20.5% | 518 | 581.4 | 0.89× |
| SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.59 2.45 gems | 1.1% | 307 | 323.0 | 0.95× |
| Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $1.04 1.6 gems | 0.8% | 327 | 323.0 | 1.01× |
| MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.72 1.1 gems | 0.8% | 508 | 484.5 | 1.05× |
| SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $0.45 0.7 gems | 0.7% | 669 | 646.0 | 1.04× |
| P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $0.39 0.6 gems | 0.6% | 644 | 646.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $15.39 | 89.97% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%classified 18.0%Mythical 10.0%consumer 10.0%mil spec 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%Rare 20.0%best hit —