Tux
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.40
20.61 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $12.05 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.42%
1,372 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.97% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.60% – 114.24%, 1,372 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,382 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $239 368 gems | 19.9% | 20 | 13.8 | 1.45× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $117 181 gems | 9.7% | 17 | 13.8 | 1.23× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $47.85 73.61 gems | 4.0% | 12 | 13.8 | 0.87× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 14 | $36.85 56.69 gems | 21.4% | 119 | 96.7 | 1.23× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $18.48 28.43 gems | 23.0% | 205 | 207.3 | 0.99× |
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $7.74 11.9 gems | 9.6% | 212 | 207.3 | 1.02× |
| SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $5.53 8.51 gems | 9.2% | 256 | 276.4 | 0.93× |
| Galil AR | Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $1.83 2.81 gems | 3.0% | 286 | 276.4 | 1.03× |
| CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.2% | 255 | 276.4 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$13.4020.61 gems$47.8573.61 gems3.57x
G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial GradeXzoticqq$13.4020.61 gems$7.7411.9 gems0.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $13.40 | 89.97% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 16.0%extraordinary 1.0%covert knife 1.0%industrial 7.0%Industrial Grade 15.0%mil spec 40.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit —