Twisted
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19,876.51
30,579 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17,888.68 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.29%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon | 20.0% | $55.3K 85,000 gems | 61.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 20.0% | $34.1K 52,500 gems | 38.2% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $66.31 102 gems | 0.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $22.11 34.02 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 15.0% | $3.74 5.75 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.21 0.32 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$19.9K30,579 gems$55.3K85,000 gems2.78x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$19.9K30,579 gems$55.3K85,000 gems2.78x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryChuck$19.9K30,579 gems$34.1K52,500 gems1.72x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$19.9K30,579 gems$55.3K85,000 gems2.78x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$19.9K30,579 gems$55.3K85,000 gems2.78x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryChuck$19.9K30,579 gems$34.1K52,500 gems1.72x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$19.9K30,579 gems$66.31102 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $19.9K | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 20.0%legendary 20.0%classified 15.0%mil spec 15.0%remarkable 15.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit $55.3K (2.78x)