Undercover
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$58.10
89.39 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $52.29 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.68%
822 openings, odds method
Variance
12.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 822 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendarygooglynogly$58.1089.39 gems$1,4202,185 gems24.44x
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendaryRavageuz$58.1089.39 gems$1,4202,185 gems24.44x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$58.1089.39 gems$18.0627.79 gems0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $58.10 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.0%covert 4.0%Covert 4.0%classified 5.0%mil spec 35.0%industrial 20.0%restricted 20.0%Uncommon 10.0%best hit $1,420 (24.44x)