Underworld Arsenal
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.98
53.81 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.47 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.79%
1,046 openings, odds method
Variance
10.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,058 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,356 2,086 gems | 21.5% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $435 670 gems | 20.8% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $195 300 gems | 18.6% | 36 | 31.7 | 1.13× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $120 184 gems | 11.4% | 42 | 31.7 | 1.32× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $38.33 58.97 gems | 8.5% | 81 | 74.1 | 1.09× |
| SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $23.39 35.98 gems | 7.4% | 108 | 105.8 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified | 10.0% | $9.46 14.56 gems | 3.0% | 104 | 105.8 | 0.98× |
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $7.12 10.95 gems | 3.4% | 147 | 158.7 | 0.93× |
| UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $4.99 7.67 gems | 4.0% | 282 | 264.5 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 25.0% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 1.4% | 235 | 264.5 | 0.89× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.98 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.5%classified 23.5%restricted 10.0%Classified 10.0%mil spec 25.0%pink 25.0%best hit $1,356 (38.76x)