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VAC Live

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$6.98
10.74 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $6.28 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.65%
9,864 openings, odds method
Variance
22.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
123.27%±31.62874 openings
7 days
88.94%±10.038,680 openings
30 days
90.65%±9.419,864 openings
since tracking started
90.65%±9.419,864 openings
78.5%117.0%155.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h874123.27%±31.6+2.1σodds
7d8,68088.94%±10.0−0.2σodds
30d9,86490.65%±9.41+0.1σodds
All9,86490.65%±9.41+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 1,000$748 1,150 gems11.9%1210.11.19×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 200$213 328 gems17.0%5250.31.03×
G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 200$171 263 gems13.6%5250.31.03×
SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified1 in 200$136 209 gems10.8%5950.31.17×
G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 100$84.03 129 gems13.4%92100.60.91×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 42$45.50 70 gems17.4%198241.50.82×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.0%$5.27 8.11 gems8.4%9811006.30.97×
SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified10.0%$2.45 3.77 gems3.9%1,0281006.31.02×
SCAR-20 | Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer10.0%$1.64 2.52 gems2.6%9791006.30.97×
SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical20.0%$0.20 0.3 gems0.6%2,0812012.61.03×
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial20.0%$0.07 0.11 gems0.2%1,9592012.60.97×
SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue25.0%$0.06 0.09 gems0.2%2,5702515.81.02×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedIntux$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$7481,150 gems107.1x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$5.278.11 gems0.76x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$45.5070 gems6.52x
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$5.278.11 gems0.76x
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$5.278.11 gems0.76x
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$6.9810.74 gems$0.070.11 gems0.01x
SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified...$6.9810.74 gems$2.453.77 gems0.35x
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$6.9810.74 gems$0.070.11 gems0.01x
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$6.9810.74 gems$0.070.11 gems0.01x
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$6.9810.74 gems$0.070.11 gems0.01x
SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$6.9810.74 gems$2.453.77 gems0.35x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$6.9889.98%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 22.5%restricted 1.0%Classified 0.5%industrial 21.0%consumer 10.0%Mythical 20.0%blue 25.0%best hit $748 (107.1x)