Vanilla Dream
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.81
8.94 gems
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $5.22 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.54%
15.9K openings, odds method
Variance
110.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,184 1,821 gems | 22.7% | 21 | 16.1 | 1.31× |
| ★ Karambitknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,184 1,821 gems | 22.7% | 16 | 16.1 | 1.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 BayonetStatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $673 1,035 gems | 12.9% | 16 | 16.1 | 1.00× |
| ★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $423 650 gems | 8.1% | 14 | 16.1 | 0.87× |
| ★ Talon Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $292 450 gems | 5.6% | 17 | 16.1 | 1.06× |
| ★ Bayonetknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $278 427 gems | 5.3% | 13 | 16.1 | 0.81× |
| ★ Nomad Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $246 378 gems | 4.7% | 11 | 16.1 | 0.69× |
| ★ Kukri Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $204 314 gems | 3.9% | 10 | 16.1 | 0.62× |
| ★ Classic Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $186 286 gems | 3.6% | 17 | 16.1 | 1.06× |
| ★ Huntsman Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $128 197 gems | 2.4% | 13 | 16.1 | 0.81× |
| ★ Falchion Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $106 164 gems | 2.0% | 18 | 16.1 | 1.12× |
| MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New)weapon · Common | 98.9% | $0.33 0.5 gems | 6.2% | 15,887 | 15876.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $5.81 | 89.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.1%Common 98.9%best hit $1,184 (203.7x)