Velocity Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.14
50.98 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $29.82 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.17%
557 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 557 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $150 230 gems | 15.1% | 9 | 16.7 | 0.54× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $111 171 gems | 11.2% | 23 | 16.7 | 1.38× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $94.61 146 gems | 9.5% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $63.81 98.17 gems | 8.6% | 23 | 22.3 | 1.03× |
| Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $42.69 65.67 gems | 7.2% | 28 | 27.9 | 1.01× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $40.20 61.85 gems | 16.2% | 68 | 66.8 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $27.76 42.7 gems | 18.6% | 116 | 111.4 | 1.04× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $18.40 28.31 gems | 12.3% | 104 | 111.4 | 0.93× |
| P250 | Forest Night (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 30.0% | $1.35 2.08 gems | 1.4% | 173 | 167.1 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $33.14 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%restricted 8.0%classified 32.0%Consumer Grade 30.0%best hit —