Velvet Vault
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$80.59
124 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $72.53 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.18%
1,822 openings, odds method
Variance
28.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,866 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$80.59124 gems$7,65411,776 gems94.98x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyya wyrsych poldi$80.59124 gems$7,65411,776 gems94.98x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$80.59124 gems$7,65411,776 gems94.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $80.59 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.3%legendary 0.3%classified 2.3%extraordinary 0.3%mil spec 85.0%best hit $7,654 (94.98x)