Vengence

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$114.61

176 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $103.15 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.71%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

45.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

55.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

20.5%97.8%175.0%

Small sample. 32 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	97.72%±76.7	—	odds
7d	28	71.96%±35.5	—	odds
30d	32	75.71%±33.2	—	odds
All	32	75.71%±33.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	20.0%	$255 392 gems	49.4%	5	6.4	0.78×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife	25.0%	$197 303 gems	47.7%	7	8.0	0.88×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial	25.0%	$7.68 11.82 gems	1.9%	13	8.0	1.63×
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial	30.0%	$3.30 5.07 gems	1.0%	7	9.6	0.73×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.