Veteran
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$95.78
147 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $86.19 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
122.24%
110 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.62% – 152.86%, 110 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$95.78147 gems$156240 gems1.63x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$95.78147 gems$61.3094.31 gems0.64x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$95.78147 gems$13.8121.24 gems0.14x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$95.78147 gems$81.25125 gems0.85x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$95.78147 gems$156240 gems1.63x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$95.78147 gems$156240 gems1.63x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $95.78 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.0%covert knife 3.0%classified 10.0%Restricted 10.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 15.0%Mythical 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%best hit $806 (8.42x)