VIBE Coded
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.80
87.39 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $51.12 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.22%
650 openings, odds method
Variance
15.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 650 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $2,132 3,280 gems | 20.9% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.15× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,504 2,314 gems | 14.7% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.85× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,068 1,643 gems | 20.9% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $644 991 gems | 12.6% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $345 530 gems | 6.7% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 100 | $131 201 gems | 2.6% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| Glock-18 | AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $64.25 98.84 gems | 6.3% | 33 | 32.5 | 1.02× |
| UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · uncommon | 25.0% | $20.88 32.13 gems | 10.2% | 127 | 162.5 | 0.78× |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 65.0% | $4.05 6.23 gems | 5.1% | 456 | 422.5 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $56.80 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%epic 1.0%rare 5.0%uncommon 25.0%pink 65.0%best hit $2,132 (37.53x)