Viking Raid
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.95
36.85 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $21.55 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.66%
600 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 708 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $299 460 gems | 27.7% | 25 | 14.2 | 1.77× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $91.21 140 gems | 33.9% | 48 | 56.6 | 0.85× |
| MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $52.27 80.41 gems | 24.2% | 62 | 70.8 | 0.88× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $14.18 21.81 gems | 3.3% | 38 | 35.4 | 1.07× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $8.70 13.38 gems | 6.1% | 103 | 106.2 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $5.02 7.73 gems | 3.5% | 104 | 106.2 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $1.18 1.81 gems | 0.8% | 113 | 106.2 | 1.06× |
| AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 15.0% | $0.59 0.9 gems | 0.4% | 112 | 106.2 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 15.0% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 0.1% | 103 | 106.2 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.95 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%#4b69ff 10.0%classified 15.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 15.0%Uncommon 30.0%best hit —