VIRGCRAYON

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$106.98
165 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
67.51%
24 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
14 openings · below min
7 days
24 openings · below min
30 days
24 openings · below min
since tracking started
24 openings · below min
-0.5%63.8%128.0%

Small sample. 24 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1450.31%±73.1—sample
7d2467.51%±59.7—sample
30d2467.51%±59.7—sample
All2467.51%±59.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$107165 gems$570877 gems5.33x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$107165 gems$570877 gems5.33x

Latest dropsnewest first

Nova | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1$107165 gems$5.919.09 gems0.06x
Nova | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1$107165 gems$5.919.09 gems0.06x
MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$107165 gems$41.5463.91 gems0.39x
Nova | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1$107165 gems$5.919.09 gems0.06x
MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$107165 gems$41.5463.91 gems0.39x
Nova | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1he$107165 gems$5.919.09 gems0.06x
Nova | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1$107165 gems$5.919.09 gems0.06x
MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$107165 gems$41.5463.91 gems0.39x
Nova | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1$107165 gems$5.919.09 gems0.06x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$107165 gems$570877 gems5.33x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $570 (5.33x)