Vortex
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$42.43
65.28 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $38.19 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.64%
97 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
54.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 97 openings and 29.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $627 964 gems | 8.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $96.91 149 gems | 38.1% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.96× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $56.90 87.54 gems | 22.4% | 16 | 14.5 | 1.10× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $44.67 68.72 gems | 17.5% | 17 | 14.5 | 1.17× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $25.30 38.92 gems | 3.3% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.24× |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $10.96 16.86 gems | 1.4% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 14.5% | $8.46 13.02 gems | 3.2% | 16 | 14.1 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $8.38 12.89 gems | 3.3% | 11 | 14.5 | 0.76× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $6.57 10.1 gems | 2.6% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classifiedNate Higgerson$42.4365.28 gems$8.3812.89 gems0.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $42.43 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 65.0%pink 5.0%classified 30.0%best hit —