Price
$167.47
258 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $150.72 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.17%
70 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
40.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 70 openings and 21.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 116 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knifeknife · covert | 10.0% | $331 509 gems | 22.0% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| ★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert | 10.0% | $319 491 gems | 21.2% | 11 | 11.6 | 0.95× |
| ★ Classic Knifeknife · covert | 10.0% | $257 395 gems | 17.0% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.21× |
| ★ Ursus Knifeknife · covert | 10.0% | $231 356 gems | 15.4% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.78× |
| ★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal | 10.0% | $188 289 gems | 12.5% | 16 | 11.6 | 1.38× |
| ★ Huntsman Knifeknife · covert | 10.0% | $179 276 gems | 11.9% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | I Conqueredsticker · milspec | 40.0% | $0.42 0.65 gems | 0.1% | 40 | 46.4 | 0.86× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $167 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%Immortal 10.0%milspec 40.0%best hit —