Warlock
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,377.59
2,119 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,239.82 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.21%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $3,836 5,902 gems | 61.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $2,003 3,082 gems | 32.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $339 521 gems | 5.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.08× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $18.21 28.02 gems | 0.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.65 4.07 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrialPalm Beach Pete$1,3782,119 gems$18.2128.02 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1,378 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.0%classified 20.0%industrial 20.0%restricted 20.0%best hit $3,836 (2.78x)