Washed Up
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.22
44.95 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $26.29 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.58%
1,025 openings, odds method
Variance
10.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,034 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $746 1,148 gems | 28.4% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $485 746 gems | 18.4% | 5 | 10.3 | 0.48× |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $299 461 gems | 11.4% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.35× |
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $148 227 gems | 5.6% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $69.40 107 gems | 15.8% | 57 | 62.0 | 0.92× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 15.0% | $20.57 31.64 gems | 11.7% | 159 | 155.1 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 25.0% | $6.71 10.32 gems | 6.4% | 274 | 258.5 | 1.06× |
| R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $1.94 2.99 gems | 1.8% | 257 | 258.5 | 0.99× |
| MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.41 0.63 gems | 0.4% | 251 | 258.5 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkThomas the termonuclear bomb$29.2244.95 gems$20.5731.64 gems0.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.22 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 7.0%extraordinary 1.0%restricted 1.0%covert 1.0%pink 15.0%Mythical 25.0%industrial 25.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit $746 (25.54x)