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Wasteland

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$28.01
43.09 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.20 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.89%
649 openings, odds method
Variance
11.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
54 openings · below min
7 days
94.01%±28.71529 openings
30 days
93.89%±25.92649 openings
since tracking started
93.89%±25.92649 openings
9.5%100.0%190.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5499.94%±89.9—odds
7d52994.01%±28.7+0.3σodds
30d64993.89%±25.9+0.3σodds
All64993.89%±25.9+0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 649 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$901 1,386 gems35.7%86.51.23×
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$206 317 gems16.4%1013.00.77×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$120 184 gems9.5%1413.01.08×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 40$63.20 97.23 gems6.3%1816.21.11×
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 40$48.70 74.93 gems4.8%2016.21.23×
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 20$38.98 59.97 gems7.7%2232.50.68×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient10.0%$16.32 25.11 gems6.5%5964.90.91×
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet15.0%$11.61 17.86 gems6.9%9797.31.00×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted20.0%$6.02 9.26 gems4.8%138129.81.06×
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspec40.0%$0.90 1.38 gems1.4%263259.61.01×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertRewu$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient$28.0143.09 gems$16.3225.11 gems0.58x
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspecValentinobond$28.0143.09 gems$0.901.38 gems0.03x
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspec$28.0143.09 gems$0.901.38 gems0.03x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$28.0143.09 gems$6.029.26 gems0.21x
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspec$28.0143.09 gems$0.901.38 gems0.03x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$28.0143.09 gems$6.029.26 gems0.21x
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspec$28.0143.09 gems$0.901.38 gems0.03x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedValentinobond$28.0143.09 gems$6.029.26 gems0.21x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.0143.09 gems$9011,386 gems32.17x
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspec$28.0143.09 gems$0.901.38 gems0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$28.0189.99%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%extraordinary 5.0%Ancient 10.0%violet 15.0%restricted 20.0%milspec 40.0%best hit $901 (32.17x)