Water Melon
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.99
18.44 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $10.78 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.12%
2,840 openings, odds method
Variance
22.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,879 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 200 | $748 1,150 gems | 34.7% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $160 247 gems | 14.9% | 24 | 28.8 | 0.83× |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 67 | $142 218 gems | 19.7% | 37 | 43.2 | 0.86× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $43.08 66.27 gems | 4.0% | 28 | 28.8 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $17.76 27.33 gems | 8.2% | 158 | 144.0 | 1.10× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $14.65 22.54 gems | 6.8% | 124 | 144.0 | 0.86× |
| USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $2.93 4.51 gems | 4.1% | 431 | 431.8 | 1.00× |
| P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $1.92 2.95 gems | 2.7% | 425 | 431.8 | 0.98× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.20 1.84 gems | 2.2% | 585 | 575.8 | 1.02× |
| Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 36.0% | $0.83 1.27 gems | 2.8% | 1,054 | 1036.4 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryMrChow$11.9918.44 gems$7481,150 gems62.36x
★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryperetz$11.9918.44 gems$7481,150 gems62.36x
★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryGetOnMySnus$11.9918.44 gems$7481,150 gems62.36x
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted*Ajooo*$11.9918.44 gems$1.201.84 gems0.10x
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$11.9918.44 gems$0.831.27 gems0.07x
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedElizabeth$11.9918.44 gems$1.201.84 gems0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.99 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%extraordinary 1.0%mil spec 1.5%Ancient 1.0%covert 20.0%classified 5.0%Rare 15.0%restricted 20.0%Uncommon 36.0%best hit $748 (62.36x)