Weeaboo's Dream
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.64
24.06 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.08 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.69%
3,597 openings, odds method
Variance
11.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,707 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $335 515 gems | 59.4% | 79 | 92.7 | 0.85× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $78.38 121 gems | 27.8% | 179 | 185.4 | 0.97× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.92 10.64 gems | 4.9% | 373 | 370.7 | 1.01× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $3.62 5.57 gems | 2.6% | 346 | 370.7 | 0.93× |
| MP9 | Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $3.17 4.88 gems | 3.4% | 585 | 556.0 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | Kawaii Eyes (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff | 25.0% | $0.46 0.71 gems | 0.8% | 906 | 926.8 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Kawaii Killer Terroriststicker · Rare | 32.5% | $0.45 0.69 gems | 1.0% | 1,239 | 1204.8 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $15.64 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.5%classified 10.0%Ancient 10.0%violet 15.0%#8847ff 25.0%Rare 32.5%best hit —