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Welcome to the Jungle

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$11.22
17.26 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $10.09 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.94%
697 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
101.10%±17.41163 openings
7 days
93.28%±9.20584 openings
30 days
92.94%±8.42697 openings
since tracking started
92.94%±8.42697 openings
83.0%101.0%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h163101.10%±17.4+1.3σodds
7d58493.28%±9.20+0.7σodds
30d69792.94%±8.42+0.7σodds
All69792.94%±8.42+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 703 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 100$70.28 108 gems7.0%57.00.71×
USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$41.21 63.4 gems8.2%1814.11.28×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified17.0%$29.22 44.95 gems49.2%126119.51.05×
M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer20.0%$11.30 17.38 gems22.4%140140.61.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 20$9.76 15.02 gems4.8%4435.11.25×
Nova | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 20$9.29 14.29 gems4.6%2435.10.68×
StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted10.0%$2.22 3.42 gems2.2%8270.31.17×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Rare10.0%$0.59 0.9 gems0.6%7070.31.00×
SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue15.0%$0.57 0.87 gems0.8%102105.40.97×
Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec15.0%$0.14 0.22 gems0.2%92105.50.87×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$11.2217.26 gems$2.223.42 gems0.20x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$11.2217.26 gems$29.2244.95 gems2.60x
Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$11.2217.26 gems$0.140.22 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$11.2217.26 gems$0.590.9 gems0.05x
M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$11.2217.26 gems$11.3017.38 gems1.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedRick Ross$11.2217.26 gems$29.2244.95 gems2.60x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.2217.26 gems$9.7615.02 gems0.87x
StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$11.2217.26 gems$2.223.42 gems0.20x
M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$11.2217.26 gems$11.3017.38 gems1.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSmeef$11.2217.26 gems$29.2244.95 gems2.60x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$11.2289.96%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 1.0%restricted 7.0%classified 17.0%consumer 20.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%Restricted 10.0%Rare 10.0%blue 15.0%milspec 15.0%best hit —