Where Wear
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$73.84
114 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $66.45 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.62%
380 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 380 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,196 1,840 gems | 18.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $559 860 gems | 16.8% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $503 774 gems | 22.7% | 15 | 11.4 | 1.32× |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 25 | $372 572 gems | 22.4% | 20 | 15.2 | 1.32× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $103 159 gems | 7.8% | 15 | 19.0 | 0.79× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $58.06 89.32 gems | 4.4% | 22 | 19.0 | 1.16× |
| MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $43.98 67.66 gems | 3.3% | 24 | 19.0 | 1.26× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $11.64 17.9 gems | 4.4% | 101 | 95.0 | 1.06× |
| Sticker | 100 Thieves (Gold) | 2020 RMRsticker | 25.0% | $0.70 1.07 gems | 0.3% | 83 | 95.0 | 0.87× |
| M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 25.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.0% | 90 | 95.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covertEnergetic Lion$73.84114 gems$503774 gems6.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $73.84 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%sunny 2.0%covert knife 4.0%classified 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%Restricted 5.0%restricted 25.0%other 25.0%light blue 25.0%best hit $1,196 (16.20x)