White Elephant
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.77
36.57 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $21.39 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.72%
3,035 openings, odds method
Variance
85.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,079 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · mil specLonsdale BOSWALL$23.7736.57 gems$0.530.82 gems0.02x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covertLonsdale BOSWALL$23.7736.57 gems$55.0384.66 gems2.32x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.77 | 89.98% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%covert 3.3%epic 0.4%classified 6.0%red 2.0%Ancient 3.0%mil spec 65.0%consumer 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit $3,953 (166.3x)