Winner's Bracket
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.28
114 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $66.85 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.84%
147 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 147 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,503 2,313 gems | 22.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $709 1,091 gems | 10.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $423 650 gems | 6.3% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.04× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $314 483 gems | 4.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $178 274 gems | 2.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $81.25 125 gems | 6.1% | 12 | 7.4 | 1.63× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $54.18 83.35 gems | 16.2% | 22 | 29.4 | 0.75× |
| AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 30.0% | $37.62 57.87 gems | 16.9% | 42 | 44.1 | 0.95× |
| AK-47 | The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 40.0% | $23.50 36.15 gems | 14.1% | 64 | 58.8 | 1.09× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rareFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$74.28114 gems$37.6257.87 gems0.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $74.28 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%restricted 20.0%rare 30.0%red 40.0%best hit $1,503 (20.24x)