Winter Mittens
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$602.66
927 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $542.39 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
156.83%
46 openings, odds method
Variance
10.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 46 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $17.5K 26,981 gems | 32.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $7,686 11,824 gems | 14.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 50 | $4,405 6,777 gems | 16.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 50 | $2,221 3,418 gems | 8.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $885 1,362 gems | 3.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $463 712 gems | 1.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $341 525 gems | 9.4% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 15.0% | $157 241 gems | 4.3% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 60.0% | $93.18 143 gems | 10.3% | 27 | 27.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$603927 gems$7,68611,824 gems12.75x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$603927 gems$7,68611,824 gems12.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinarytrickytrash$603927 gems$157241 gems0.26x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarytrickytrash$603927 gems$93.18143 gems0.15x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $603 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 81.0%legendary 4.0%Extraordinary 15.0%best hit $17.5K (29.10x)