Winter Wreath
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$470.72
724 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $423.65 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
37.07%
74 openings, odds method
Variance
10.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 74 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 200 | $18.5K 28,498 gems | 21.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $5,866 9,024 gems | 13.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $5,138 7,905 gems | 18.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 50 | $1,988 3,059 gems | 9.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 33 | $439 675 gems | 3.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $436 670 gems | 6.2% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| ★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $172 265 gems | 3.3% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 11 | $165 254 gems | 3.5% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 69.0% | $127 195 gems | 20.7% | 59 | 51.1 | 1.16× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryPalm Beach Pete$471724 gems$1,9883,059 gems4.22x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $471 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.5%legendary 3.0%covert 78.5%high 3.0%classified 6.0%pink 9.0%best hit $1,988 (4.22x)