Wisdom
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.97
87.65 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $51.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.68%
165 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 165 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $557 857 gems | 32.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $453 697 gems | 26.5% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $232 357 gems | 13.6% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.82× |
| AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $91.30 140 gems | 5.3% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| MP9 | Stained Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $66.28 102 gems | 3.9% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.21× |
| Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $47.89 73.68 gems | 2.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| XM1014 | Red Leather (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Heavy | 12.0% | $31.19 47.99 gems | 7.3% | 26 | 19.8 | 1.31× |
| P250 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 14.0% | $18.80 28.93 gems | 5.1% | 19 | 23.1 | 0.82× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $5.55 8.54 gems | 2.7% | 32 | 41.3 | 0.78× |
| MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 31.0% | $0.28 0.43 gems | 0.2% | 58 | 51.1 | 1.13× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$56.9787.65 gems$5.558.54 gems0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $56.97 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 34.0%covert 3.0%restricted 6.0%Heavy 12.0%mil spec 45.0%best hit $557 (9.77x)