Wolf Pack
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$762.42
1,173 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $686.17 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
197.78%
21 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 21 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 15.0% | $3,575 5,500 gems | 78.2% | 9 | 4.0 | 2.22× |
| Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband | 15.0% | $918 1,413 gems | 20.1% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 15.0% | $74.05 114 gems | 1.6% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $3.28 5.05 gems | 0.1% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.74× |
| Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $2.55 3.93 gems | 0.1% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $0.71 1.09 gems | 0.0% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeSensitive Young Man$7621,173 gems$74.05114 gems0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $762 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 30.0%covert knife 15.0%restricted 40.0%consumer 15.0%best hit $3,575 (4.69x)