World Stage
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$116.38
179 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $104.74 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.67%
259 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 259 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $749 1,153 gems | 35.8% | 17 | 13.0 | 1.31× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire | 1 in 20 | $496 763 gems | 23.7% | 16 | 13.0 | 1.24× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $361 555 gems | 17.2% | 18 | 13.0 | 1.39× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $196 302 gems | 9.4% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $139 214 gems | 6.6% | 17 | 13.0 | 1.31× |
| M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $41.94 64.53 gems | 4.0% | 19 | 25.9 | 0.73× |
| SG 553 | Traveler (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $11.58 17.82 gems | 1.7% | 34 | 38.9 | 0.88× |
| CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $7.28 11.2 gems | 1.0% | 46 | 38.9 | 1.18× |
| Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $3.23 4.97 gems | 0.5% | 31 | 38.9 | 0.80× |
| Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.79 1.21 gems | 0.2% | 50 | 51.8 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $116 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.0%legendary 5.0%covert 10.0%Legendary 20.0%industrial 10.0%Industrial Grade 15.0%Mythical 15.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit $749 (6.44x)