Wrapped
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.34
37.44 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $21.90 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.52%
2,433 openings, odds method
Variance
21.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,519 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $1,235 1,900 gems | 28.2% | 15 | 12.6 | 1.19× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $580 893 gems | 13.3% | 10 | 12.6 | 0.79× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $431 663 gems | 19.7% | 31 | 25.2 | 1.23× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $351 540 gems | 16.0% | 34 | 25.2 | 1.35× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $248 381 gems | 11.3% | 17 | 25.2 | 0.67× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $150 230 gems | 6.8% | 28 | 25.2 | 1.11× |
| Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet | 95.0% | $1.09 1.68 gems | 4.7% | 2,384 | 2393.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendarykikones23$24.3437.44 gems$1,2351,900 gems50.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinarythegamblingbandits.com$24.3437.44 gems$351540 gems14.41x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.34 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.0%extraordinary 2.0%Extraordinary 1.0%violet 95.0%best hit $1,235 (50.75x)