Wreck-9

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$27.52
42.34 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $24.77 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.60%
447 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90 openings · below min
7 days
83.28%±23.35411 openings
30 days
84.60%±22.39447 openings
since tracking started
84.60%±22.39447 openings
-0.5%53.5%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h9040.06%±49.9—odds
7d41183.28%±23.4−0.6σodds
30d44784.60%±22.4−0.5σodds
All44784.60%±22.4−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 447 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$304 468 gems61.4%2222.40.98×
Tec-9 | Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$77.60 119 gems15.7%1622.40.72×
Tec-9 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 20$30.21 46.48 gems6.1%1622.40.72×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$25.77 39.64 gems5.2%2422.41.07×
Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade10.0%$12.94 19.91 gems5.2%5244.71.16×
Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec10.0%$5.38 8.27 gems2.2%3944.70.87×
Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade10.0%$4.58 7.04 gems1.8%4844.71.07×
Tec-9 | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec10.0%$2.90 4.46 gems1.2%4644.71.03×
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted10.0%$1.43 2.2 gems0.6%4744.71.05×
Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec10.0%$0.88 1.36 gems0.4%4144.70.92×
Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec10.0%$0.53 0.81 gems0.2%5144.71.14×
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer10.0%$0.08 0.12 gems0.0%4544.71.01×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$27.5242.34 gems$4.587.04 gems0.17x
Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$27.5242.34 gems$0.530.81 gems0.02x
Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$27.5242.34 gems$0.530.81 gems0.02x
Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$27.5242.34 gems$12.9419.91 gems0.47x
Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$27.5242.34 gems$4.587.04 gems0.17x
Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil specmerked$27.5242.34 gems$5.388.27 gems0.20x
Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$27.5242.34 gems$12.9419.91 gems0.47x
Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$27.5242.34 gems$4.587.04 gems0.17x
Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$27.5242.34 gems$12.9419.91 gems0.47x
Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$27.5242.34 gems$0.881.36 gems0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$27.5289.99%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 15.0%mil spec 35.0%consumer 15.0%classified 5.0%Industrial Grade 20.0%Mil Spec 10.0%best hit —