Wyrm's Vault
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.14
46.37 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.12 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.70%
1,444 openings, odds method
Variance
54.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,502 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $6,637 10,210 gems | 24.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,082 1,665 gems | 8.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $607 934 gems | 6.7% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 250 | $488 750 gems | 7.2% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $399 614 gems | 7.4% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.67× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $183 281 gems | 10.1% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $59.84 92.06 gems | 11.0% | 89 | 75.1 | 1.19× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $34.35 52.84 gems | 6.3% | 64 | 75.1 | 0.85× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $12.54 19.29 gems | 3.2% | 119 | 105.1 | 1.13× |
| Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6 | 80.0% | $5.28 8.13 gems | 15.6% | 1,188 | 1201.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $30.14 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.6%legendary 0.4%restricted 5.0%classified 12.0%#d32ce6 80.0%best hit $6,637 (220.2x)