Yuletide Raiders
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$80.17
123 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $72.15 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
121.51%
193 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 197 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $2,366 3,640 gems | 16.4% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $858 1,320 gems | 17.8% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $575 884 gems | 23.9% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $144 221 gems | 10.0% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $109 167 gems | 15.1% | 21 | 19.7 | 1.07× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $45.56 70.09 gems | 6.3% | 19 | 19.7 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $25.14 38.67 gems | 5.2% | 31 | 29.5 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $10.62 16.34 gems | 2.2% | 40 | 29.5 | 1.35× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $8.32 12.8 gems | 2.3% | 33 | 39.4 | 0.84× |
| P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.80 4.3 gems | 0.8% | 33 | 39.4 | 0.84× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertEnergetic Lion$80.17123 gems$45.5670.09 gems0.57x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $80.17 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%classified 25.0%restricted 35.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit $2,366 (29.51x)