Price
$12.23
18.81 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $11.00 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.95%
6,468 openings, odds method
Variance
19.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,580 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 100 | $444 684 gems | 40.4% | 71 | 65.8 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $273 419 gems | 24.8% | 74 | 65.8 | 1.12× |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 50 | $81.33 125 gems | 14.8% | 112 | 131.6 | 0.85× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $61.60 94.77 gems | 16.8% | 187 | 197.4 | 0.95× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $11.61 17.86 gems | 3.2% | 178 | 197.4 | 0.90× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 45.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 3,051 | 2961.0 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 45.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 2,907 | 2961.0 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.23 | 89.96% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 1.0%covert 4.0%#d32ee6 2.0%mil spec 3.0%consumer 90.0%best hit —