Confrontation

A case on CSBattle, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$6.45
10 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
89.00%
495 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
28 openings · below min
7 days
417 openings · below min
30 days
495 openings · below min
since tracking started
495 openings · below min
61.5%82.3%103.0%

Small sample. 495 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2882.07%±20.0—sample
7d41790.26%±9.34—sample
30d49589.00%±8.43—sample
All49589.00%±8.43—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$6.459.99 CSBATTLE_COIN1.00x
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$6.459.99 CSBATTLE_COIN1.00x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$7.8312.13 CSBATTLE_COIN1.21x
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricteddem0n$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$6.459.99 CSBATTLE_COIN1.00x
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$2.083.23 CSBATTLE_COIN0.32x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$7.8312.13 CSBATTLE_COIN1.21x
Lt. Commander Ricksaw | NSWC SEALagent · red$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$19.5330.27 CSBATTLE_COIN3.03x
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$6.459.99 CSBATTLE_COIN1.00x
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$4.857.51 CSBATTLE_COIN0.75x
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedKakamees @bandit$6.4510 CSBATTLE_COIN$6.459.99 CSBATTLE_COIN1.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —