Heat

A case on CSBattle, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$2,580.65
4,000 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
100.78%
6 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
6 openings · below min
30 days
6 openings · below min
since tracking started
6 openings · below min
53.0%100.8%148.5%

Small sample. 6 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d6100.78%±47.3—sample
30d6100.78%±47.3—sample
All6100.78%±47.3—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$4,8397,501 CSBATTLE_COIN1.88x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$3,7795,858 CSBATTLE_COIN1.46x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$2,9794,618 CSBATTLE_COIN1.15x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,5482,399 CSBATTLE_COIN0.60x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,5482,399 CSBATTLE_COIN0.60x
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epiclim jahey$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$9111,413 CSBATTLE_COIN0.35x

Latest dropsnewest first

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,5482,399 CSBATTLE_COIN0.60x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$2,9794,618 CSBATTLE_COIN1.15x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$4,8397,501 CSBATTLE_COIN1.88x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,5482,399 CSBATTLE_COIN0.60x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$3,7795,858 CSBATTLE_COIN1.46x
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epiclim jahey$2,5814,000 CSBATTLE_COIN$9111,413 CSBATTLE_COIN0.35x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily
No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $4,839 (1.88x)