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Christmas

A case on CSBattle, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,951.61
3,025 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
38.11%
24 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
6 openings · below min
30 days
24 openings · below min
since tracking started
24 openings · below min
-0.5%45.0%90.5%

Small sample. 24 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d613.19%±23.5—sample
30d2438.11%±51.5—sample
All2438.11%±51.5—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$12.2K18,937 CSBATTLE_COIN6.26x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$2,2623,507 CSBATTLE_COIN1.16x
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,4292,216 CSBATTLE_COIN0.73x
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert★Rogerfg104★$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,4292,216 CSBATTLE_COIN0.73x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$21.6133.5 CSBATTLE_COIN0.01x
P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$21.6133.5 CSBATTLE_COIN0.01x
P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$21.6133.5 CSBATTLE_COIN0.01x
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,4292,216 CSBATTLE_COIN0.73x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$28.0643.5 CSBATTLE_COIN0.01x
P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil speclim jahey$1,9523,025 CSBATTLE_COIN$21.6133.5 CSBATTLE_COIN0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $12.2K (6.26x)