Siren Alarm

A case on CSBattle, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$4,748.39
7,360 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
103.34%
138 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
126 openings · below min
30 days
138 openings · below min
since tracking started
138 openings · below min
58.0%103.3%148.5%

Small sample. 138 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d126103.35%±44.6—sample
30d138103.34%±41.4—sample
All138103.34%±41.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryCe "CS2SKINS.GIFT"$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$61.8K95,840 CSBATTLE_COIN13.02x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$61.8K95,840 CSBATTLE_COIN13.02x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$61.8K95,840 CSBATTLE_COIN13.02x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$61.8K95,840 CSBATTLE_COIN13.02x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$54.7K84,740 CSBATTLE_COIN11.51x
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertCe "CS2SKINS.GIFT"$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$19.9K30,902 CSBATTLE_COIN4.20x
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$19.9K30,902 CSBATTLE_COIN4.20x
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertCe "CS2SKINS.GIFT"$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$19.9K30,902 CSBATTLE_COIN4.20x
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$19.9K30,902 CSBATTLE_COIN4.20x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | mousesports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$391607 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$407630 CSBATTLE_COIN0.09x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,1091,718 CSBATTLE_COIN0.23x
Sticker | mousesports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$391607 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
Sticker | mousesports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$391607 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
Sticker | mousesports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$391607 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryCe "CS2SKINS.GIFT"$4,7487,360 CSBATTLE_COIN$61.8K95,840 CSBATTLE_COIN13.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $61.8K (13.02x)