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Big wins
Mines$186138.7xDeadline Max Chaos$250125.0xWild Bounty Showdown$2,2925.09xMines$186138.7xLe Prechaun$62.32155.8xMines$1,09621.89xMega Wheel$6,01425.50xONE Blackjack$2,5002.00xCase Battles$1,2974.13xBookof Dizzy$86.49288.3xInstant Roulette$1,2102.02xRage Quit 2$3,2263.23xBlackjack$3,0032.00xBetby Sportsbook$1,5742.16xBuried By Night$545544.9xThe Flasher$339303.6xPrivé Lounge 1$2,0002.00xSugar Rush Super Scatter$2,32133.00xMines$1,46158.38xZEUS$1,90060.00xSalon Privé Baccarat C$2,2292.00xFruit Party$193114.4xSweet Bonanza 1000$1,9521.76xSweet Rush Fiesta$1,9519.25x

Window Smoke

A case on CSBattle, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$2,903.23
4,500 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
130.86%
48 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
30 openings · below min
30 days
48 openings · below min
since tracking started
48 openings · below min
47.5%124.3%201.0%

Small sample. 48 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d30124.17%±76.1—sample
30d48130.86%±59.5—sample
All48130.86%±59.5—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$16.2K25,102 CSBATTLE_COIN5.58x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$15.7K24,358 CSBATTLE_COIN5.41x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$15.7K24,358 CSBATTLE_COIN5.41x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$15.7K24,358 CSBATTLE_COIN5.41x
Sticker | Harp of War (Holo)sticker · Sticker$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$15.4K23,867 CSBATTLE_COIN5.30x
EMS Katowice 2014 Challengersother · base$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$14.1K21,854 CSBATTLE_COIN4.86x
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$13K20,073 CSBATTLE_COIN4.46x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$12.8K19,917 CSBATTLE_COIN4.43x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$11.7K18,155 CSBATTLE_COIN4.03x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4★Rogerfg104★$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$10.8K16,689 CSBATTLE_COIN3.71x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$1.061.65 CSBATTLE_COIN0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$10.4K16,049 CSBATTLE_COIN3.57x
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$13K20,073 CSBATTLE_COIN4.46x
MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$5.318.23 CSBATTLE_COIN0.00x
Sticker | Harp of War (Holo)sticker · Sticker$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$15.4K23,867 CSBATTLE_COIN5.30x
MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ffBella Frost$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$5.318.23 CSBATTLE_COIN0.00x
MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$5.318.23 CSBATTLE_COIN0.00x
P250 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$1.061.65 CSBATTLE_COIN0.00x
MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$5.318.23 CSBATTLE_COIN0.00x
MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ffGrizzly$2,9034,500 CSBATTLE_COIN$5.318.23 CSBATTLE_COIN0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $16.2K (5.58x)