Nerd

A case on CSBattle, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$52.90
82 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
84.95%
312 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
66 openings · below min
7 days
288 openings · below min
30 days
312 openings · below min
since tracking started
312 openings · below min
54.5%86.5%118.5%

Small sample. 312 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6686.50%±31.3—sample
7d28877.14%±14.0—sample
30d31284.95%±19.5—sample
All31284.95%±19.5—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$1,2311,908 CSBATTLE_COIN23.27x

Latest dropsnewest first

M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$24.2237.54 CSBATTLE_COIN0.46x
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$199309 CSBATTLE_COIN3.77x
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$5.778.94 CSBATTLE_COIN0.11x
M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$24.2237.54 CSBATTLE_COIN0.46x
M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$24.2237.54 CSBATTLE_COIN0.46x
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covertGud$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$128199 CSBATTLE_COIN2.42x
M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$24.2237.54 CSBATTLE_COIN0.46x
M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$24.2237.54 CSBATTLE_COIN0.46x
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$128199 CSBATTLE_COIN2.42x
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkbandits$52.9082 CSBATTLE_COIN$5.778.94 CSBATTLE_COIN0.11x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,231 (23.27x)