Fading

A case on CSBattle, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$193.55
300 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
66.17%
126 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
18 openings · below min
7 days
96 openings · below min
30 days
126 openings · below min
since tracking started
126 openings · below min
54.5%92.0%129.5%

Small sample. 126 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1891.97%±36.8—sample
7d9670.82%±13.2—sample
30d12666.17%±10.9—sample
All12666.17%±10.9—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$627972 CSBATTLE_COIN3.24x
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$627972 CSBATTLE_COIN3.24x

Latest dropsnewest first

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$69.31107 CSBATTLE_COIN0.36x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$229355 CSBATTLE_COIN1.18x
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$165256 CSBATTLE_COIN0.85x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$36.3356.31 CSBATTLE_COIN0.19x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$229355 CSBATTLE_COIN1.18x
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$627972 CSBATTLE_COIN3.24x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$69.31107 CSBATTLE_COIN0.36x
Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$21.5333.37 CSBATTLE_COIN0.11x
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$194300 CSBATTLE_COIN$165256 CSBATTLE_COIN0.85x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $627 (3.24x)