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5% M4A1-S

A case on CSBattle, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSBattle's own item price converted from csbattle coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$2.37
3.67 CSBATTLE_COIN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
76.05%
442 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
44 openings · below min
7 days
411 openings · below min
30 days
442 openings · below min
since tracking started
442 openings · below min
-0.5%83.0%166.5%

Small sample. 442 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4450.51%±47.6—sample
7d41176.73%±89.3—sample
30d44276.05%±83.4—sample
All44276.05%±83.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSBattle publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSBattle's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$440682 CSBATTLE_COIN185.9x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.190.3 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedrkN$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.190.3 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.180.28 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.190.3 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.180.28 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.180.28 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.190.3 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.190.3 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.180.28 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffbrett$2.373.67 CSBATTLE_COIN$0.180.28 CSBATTLE_COIN0.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $440 (185.9x)