2021 Dust 2

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.69

Advertised RTP

64.80%

EV $1.74 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

335.18%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

14 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

64.5%249.5%434.5%

Small sample. 14 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	349.22%±84.6	—	odds
7d	14	335.18%±74.0	—	odds
30d	14	335.18%±74.0	—	odds
All	14	335.18%±74.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 199,585	$1,149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 143,209	$200	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 137,112	$190	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,041	$31.80	0.9%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 959	$24.61	1.5%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 815	$23.29	1.6%	1	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 51	$8.86	9.9%	1	0.3	—
Nova \| Quick Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 39	$8.01	11.8%	3	0.4	—
G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$7.26	13.8%	5	0.5	—
P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 30	$7.24	13.9%	4	0.5	—
MP9 \| Old Roots (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	32.2%	$1.07	19.8%	0	4.5	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	28.3%	$0.82	13.3%	0	4.0	0.00×
AUG \| Spalted Wood (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial	28.0%	$0.81	13.0%	0	3.9	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareDubASSoff$2.69$8.583.19x21h

P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecDubASSoff$2.69$7.742.88x21h

G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested)weapon · blueDubASSoff$2.69$7.692.86x21h

USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalDubASSoff$2.69$23.308.66x21h

P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecDubASSoff$2.69$7.742.88x21h

G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested)weapon · blueDubASSoff$2.69$7.692.86x21h

Nova | Quick Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffDubASSoff$2.69$8.083.00x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.80%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.69	64.80%	13
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.69	64.65%	13
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.69	64.65%	13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.69	64.93%	14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.69	65.10%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.69	65.12%	14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.69	65.11%	14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.69	65.10%	14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.69	65.22%	14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.69	65.54%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.69	65.56%	14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.69	65.52%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.69	65.64%	14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.69	65.55%	14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.69	65.57%	14
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	65.64%	14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	65.59%	14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.69	65.51%	14
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.69	65.59%	14
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	65.57%	14
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	65.48%	14
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.69	65.60%	14
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.69	65.89%	14
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.69	65.97%	14
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.69	65.90%	14
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.69	65.61%	14
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.69	65.74%	14
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.69	65.75%	14
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.69	65.76%	13
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.69	65.70%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 0.0%Mythical 0.2%Rare 2.0%#4b69ff 2.6%blue 3.3%milspec 3.3%Uncommon 32.2%Industrial Grade 28.3%Industrial 28.0%best hit —