2021 Vertigo

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.69

Advertised RTP

76.50%

EV $2.06 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

176.58%

2 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

2 openings · below min

since tracking started

2 openings · below min

-0.5%181.3%363.0%

Small sample. 2 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1	166.91%±195.6	—	odds
30d	2	176.58%±140.3	—	odds
All	2	176.58%±140.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 199,531	$1,016	0.2%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 140,201	$179	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,760	$39.00	0.4%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 3,374	$34.65	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,292	$30.36	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 310	$15.23	2.4%	0	0.0	—
Nova \| Interlock (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 22	$5.39	11.8%	0	0.1	—
Negev \| Infrastructure (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$4.48	13.9%	1	0.1	—
P90 \| Schematic (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$4.21	14.5%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	11.9%	$2.73	15.8%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	13.9%	$1.94	13.1%	0	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Mechanism (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	14.0%	$1.70	11.5%	0	0.3	—
PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	13.5%	$1.42	9.3%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 14	$0.55	1.9%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 18	$0.41	1.1%	0	0.1	—
Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777	1 in 19	$0.40	1.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Strats (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 19	$0.38	0.9%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 20	$0.37	0.9%	0	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Infrastructure (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffnonyamis$2.69$4.491.67x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.69	76.50%	18
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.69	76.34%	18
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.69	76.30%	18
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.69	76.65%	18
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.69	76.95%	18
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.69	76.97%	18
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.69	76.92%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.69	76.96%	18
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.69	77.09%	18
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.69	77.57%	18
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.69	77.53%	18
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.69	77.50%	18
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.69	77.49%	18
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.69	77.48%	18
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.69	77.48%	18
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	77.52%	18
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	77.50%	18
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.69	77.50%	18
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.69	77.48%	18
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	77.50%	18
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	77.46%	18
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.69	77.57%	18
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.69	77.95%	18
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.69	77.94%	18
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.69	77.83%	18
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.69	77.55%	18
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.69	77.67%	18
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.69	77.55%	18
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.69	77.61%	18
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.69	77.58%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Classified 0.0%restricted 0.1%#8847ff 0.0%blue 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 4.5%#4b69ff 6.4%milspec 7.1%Uncommon 25.8%#87c7ff 27.5%Common 12.3%consumer 5.5%#777777 5.4%Consumer Grade 5.1%best hit —